Musings on Investing

Is India the next China?

Actelion (OTC:ALIOY; VTX:ATLN)

 

One issue has amused me for a long time. In the international media, one often hears about India having replaced China as the fastest growing large economy. This is completely wrong.

Even if India grows at 7.5%, it adds a mere $129 to its per capita GDP. If China grows at 6.3%, it adds $520 to its per capita GDP. (China and India have comparable populations).

Linked is an article I wrote on the above. I will be speaking next month at PDAC (Toronto) on the same issue.

Conversation with Cory Fleck, Korelin Economics

Conversation with Adam Meister

Linked here is a recent interview I did with Brian Leni.

In my view, the situation with India is worse than what the above portray.

I have been asked by many Indians about how they can keep their gold outside India. Here are three options I can think of:

  • Proven & Probable advice on offshore storage, and safe deposit boxes fully insured and secured by Brinks.
  • GoldMoney has recently started services in Indian Rupee.

On investments…

I prefer to invest in junior mining companies, but once in a while I like to look at the non-mining sector for diversification. One such company is Actelion (OTC:ALIOY; US$65.10; SIX:ATLN; CHF256.90).

Actelion is being acquired by Johnson & Johnson. Actelion shareholder will get paid US$280 in cash plus a share of a spin-off. Depending on how you value the spinoff, ATLN is worth between US$288 to US$298. (Note: ALIOY is an ADR and represents 1/4th of a share).

There is an arbitrage upside of about 12% to 16%. Given that this is a rather safe investment, I find this arbitrage very attractive.

On other matters….

I now have a Youtube channel and Twitter account. (Many thanks to Maurice Jackson for his help with these and the new website; also, for bringing Actelion to my attention.)

Finally, after a long delay, the program for Capitalism & Morality is finally starting to take shape. Registration will open in the first week of March. Please pencil the seminar in for 29th July 2017.

Warm regards,

Jayant Bhandari

 

Disclaimer: All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. The sole purpose of these musings is to show my thinking process when analyzing a stock, not to provide any recommendation. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.

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