Musings on Investing

Between Lies, War, and Dysfunction

Within mere hours of the war’s onset, India lost multiple fighter aircraft—reportedly five—on its own soil. That such losses occurred inside Indian territory, despite India being the aggressor, raises uncomfortable questions. Was it friendly fire? Incompetence? Poor training? Given Pakistan’s own institutional dysfunction, it’s hard to imagine they pulled off such precision strikes.

This became a reputational setback for Dassault, whose Rafales were meant to project elite air superiority. Here are my thoughts on this deeply revealing episode—an indictment not just of a moment, but of decades of dysfunction:

In the following conversation with Andy Millette, we discuss the genesis of the India-Pakistan war, why the US should not have brought a ceasefire, and why there is no solution to this problem. The key to understanding this is that both sides are irrational and amoral:

In the end, the Third World problems have no beginning and no end:

On Investments

With share prices of companies that I follow on the rise, I am increasingly focused on arbitrage opportunities:

  • Granite Creek Copper (GCX; $0.035) is being acquired. The arbitrage upside is 18%. They should close a financing of the acquiree, at a price equivalent to the current share price of GCX. So, I expect the downside to be well-protected.
  • Till Capital (TIL; $1.82) is very illiquid and offers an arbitrage upside of 13% plus warrants and contingent value rights (CVRs).
  • Nuclear Fuels (NF; $0.29) offers an arbitrage upside of 33%; however, I will likely exit early, leaving half of the upside on the table.

The registration for the next Capitalism & Morality seminar is going well. There will soon be an update on the Friday dinner event with Albert Lu, although this will be restricted to the first sixty people who register.

Jayant Bhandari

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