Value-traps

Tethyan Resources, etc.

Many investors believe in the fallacious concept of “falling knife.” There is no way to know when the market will stop falling. We cannot predict when it will turn around and start going up. So, when the price is right, I do what I intended to do. But those trying to perfect the timing keep waiting and end up chasing the market when it is going up, exactly when I start to sell.

Brian Leni, and I discuss “falling knife,” “value-traps,” etc. here:

I have been stuck in India for the last two months, for the government decided it needed to implement the most atrocious lockdown ever enforced on the planet. They declared a country-wide curfew, which disbarred people from leaving home.

I recall that when my family went out to travel in the 1970s, we carried a big box of coins. When we stopped our car, scores of beggars would surround us. Our only option was to pick up a fist of coins and throw them in the air, to disperse the beggars and to enable us to carry on.

Over the last couple of decades, India has become a bit richer. Its GDP is US$2,350 per capita. This still means that on any given day, between 300 million to 1,000 million people do not have enough to eat.

When the currently imposed curfew starts getting relaxed, I am expecting a massive increase in beggars, a reversion back to the 1970s.

The human catastrophe that Modi has caused is unprecedented. I am regularly posting on the crisis on my twitter page and Facebook page.

Many Indians living in the West will tell you how great India is. In response, always ask them why they left India and why wouldn’t they return. If they celebrate India’s independence day in the UK ask them why they bothered to get rid of the British from India and then followed them to the UK.

Here is an article I recently wrote on the current crisis:

I also discussed with Vivek Sen about the situation in India and what I see as its future:

On Investments…

The market has done very well. For me, this has been an opportunity to raise cash by selling companies whose prices have exceeded their value.

Here are some opportunities:

• Tethyan Resources (TETH; C$0.15): It is being acquired by Adriatic Metals, which has a nice upside. By buying TETH, I get a less expensive way to buy Adriatic. Or I can see TETH as a way to make money from arbitrage.
• O3 Mining (OIII; C$1.97): OIII continues to be available at a fire-sale price, despite that they continue to be very active.
• Anaconda Mining (ANX; C$0.225): This is a profit-generating company. In the last quarter, they made C$0.01. Or in other words, P/E is ~6. The market is giving no value to its Goldboro project.
• Maritime Resources (MAE; C$0.06): I recently participated in their financing. If it falls back to the financing price of C$0.06, I would buy more. My view continues to be that on a per-share basis, MAE is worth half as much as ANX is.

Warm regards,

Jayant Bhandari

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